How to Protect Card’s Value Regardless of Player’s Performance in 2025

The trading card hobby is fascinating and unpredictable in its own world. For the collectors looking forward to the next NBA season, waiting to sell your card after the season’s completion might not be the best bet. Yes, I understand; you could be praying to God all day for your prospective player to perform well.

You might be thinking that your favorite player’s incredible performance on the court or field would instantly raise the value of their trading cards. But what if I say Damian Lillard, a Milwaukee Bucks player, had nothing short of a spectacular performance in 2020, but his trading cards did not see a significant increase in their value. In fact, data indicates that the value of his basketball cards gradually decreased over the year.

So, it’s not as simple as it seems. In the ever-evolving world of the sports card market, it is important for you to understand how the value of your card is really decided.

So, let’s dive deep into it and understand what really affects the value of your trading card and how you can protect your trading card value in 2025 without worrying about the player’s performance.

Read more to further understand how your card’s value can decrease even after a strong performance from the player.

Factors that Really Impact Your Card Value

1. Face value

It is no secret that most of the cards are priced based on the popularity and hype of the player. Historically, well-established players have always fetched higher prices for their trading cards. Arguably, a Charles Barkley rookie AUTO would any day fetch a higher price than a Bernard King card, even after both having the HOF title.

2. Condition

The condition of your card has one of the biggest impacts on its performance in the trading card market. People, of course, want to purchase cards in the best condition possible and hence would pay higher prices for a better quality card.

3. Grading

A card’s value literally skyrockets once it’s graded. Grading your card will not only prove its authenticity but also help you find more information about your card, such as its population (POP), other factors such as centering and edge correctness, and its overall grading that helps you market it properly.

4. Time of the Year

The world of sports card investing often rides on the wave of the time of the year factor. The card value dwindles differently before and after the incoming of the NBA season.

5. Player’s Performance

It is a fact that a player’s performance in the season does impact their card value. But not in the way we all think. There are several examples out there that show that despite a player’s exceptional performance in the game, their card value only saw a modest jump in their pricing or even decreased over time.

But why does this happen? Let us further understand how a player’s performance hits the market trends.

Player’s Performance Vs the Actual Price of Your Card

The Preseason Hype Vs In-Season Performance

Collectors often hold out for the entire season to sell their cards, only to know that their card’s value has further decreased, even less than its preseason value. This is because data has suggested that people are not interested in how their player has performed in the game. Rather, they are more interested in how much hype there is around them during the preseason time. This leads us to see prominent players’ cards often going for inflated price values.

We can check out a few examples to prove my point. After the ending of the 2023-24 NBA season, we can analyze how the basketball card market performed—specifically focusing on guards and forwards—to see if performance can justify an investment.

Players Falling Short of Expectations

There have been a group of highly touted NBA players from last year’s fantasy basketball drafts, which have failed to meet people’s expectations, both on the court and in the card market.

For instance,

• Zion Williamson, after his high preseason expectations, has had his recurring injuries lead to declines in overall card prices, leaving collectors and investors frustrated.

• James Harden, despite his reputation as a prolific scorer, has seen a noticeable drop in the values of his cards due to his inconsistent start to the season.

• Ben Simmons, despite his big name, has seen his card prices crash following an offseason for him full of controversies.

Even players with solid reputations, like Russell Westbrook, have seen stagnation or sharp declines in their card prices, further emphasizing the disparity between preseason optimism and in-season realities.

Players Exceeding Expectations

While there have been some significant examples of card values going against the expectations, there are numerous examples of player cards meeting the expectation as well. These players’ stats suggest they should be driving card values:

• Ja Morant, the Memphis Grizzlies’ star, has elevated his game this season, leading to significant gains in his card prices.

• Stephen Curry’s record-breaking performances and MVP-caliber season have kept his card values trending upward.

• LaMelo Ball, after gaining the title of Rookie of the Year, has seen a dynamic boost in his popularity and card prices.

This trend highlights the overwhelming influence of preseason hype versus consistent performance. And, since this is such an uncontrollable factor, collectors often look to invest in well-established players who are now retired, avoiding these uncertainties every game season.

Well Established Players Vs Newer Talent: Where to Invest for Higher Profit

The well-established players have already established their legacy and often have consistent market value, reducing the risk for investors. While these cards might be a great option to hold the same value for a long time, their card prices may not see exponential growth unless tied to historical milestones.

On the other hand, cards of rising stars like Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson can yield massive returns if they live up to their potential. They often cater to new collectors who don’t have any prior investment experience and capital to invest in. So, collectors trying to make huge profits often look to invest in these promising prospects.

Now, let’s address the gorilla in the room.

How to Protect Card’s Value Regardless of Player’s Performance

1. Diversify your portfolio

Collectors often look to diversify their investment portfolios for maximum returns. It includes investing in both established players and promising prospects. Even though we are always trying to make the maximum returns for our investment, allocating a larger portion to the established players is considered a smart move. A comparatively smaller portion of our budget should go into investing in rookie cards of draft players and high-potential prospects.

2. Understand the concept of Hype Trading

As discussed earlier, player cards see the maximum surge in their value during the pre-season time. This goes on to show that cards are bought not on the basis of a player’s performance but more on the basis of the hype around them.

To earn the maximum profit, collectors should wait for the next pre-game season time, even if their player has performed well in the most recent season, to leverage the player’s hype into earning more profit.

3. Concept of Recency Bias

Hype trading gains fuel from the concept of recency bias. Recency bias is an emotional bias that gives undue importance to the recent events that have occurred over the historical ones. This in turn increases the price of players who have done exceptionally well in the last season, as compared to the people who have been doing consistently well throughout their game journey.

For collectors looking to make big bucks, they can look out to sell cards of players who have done exceptionally well in their last season, during the preseason hype, while still holding on to other cards.

4. Focus on Rarity

A big part of trading card investing involves attending auctions or visiting the nearest card shops for the organized trading card events. One can make a fortune both in cash and in trade out of these events if they have access to the right assets.

By assets, I mean rare cards with hard-signed autographs or some sort of memorabilia, such as true jersey patches or floor pieces or even relics. Investors hence should focus more on rare parallels, limited-edition, AUTO, or RPA cards to prevent their cards from losing value significantly during a player’s offseason.

5. The Case of Sealed Wax Boxes

If you feel individual player investments are risky, what about sealed wax?

Sealed basketball card boxes, particularly from popular sets like Prizm, have shown consistent growth:

• 2018-19 Prizm Basketball: Up by 70% in the last 60 days, driven by Luka Doncic and Trae Young rookie cards.
• 2019-20 Prizm Basketball: Up by 50%, fueled by the continued success of players like Ja Morant and Zion Williamson.
• 2020-21 Prizm Basketball: Up by 35%, as collectors chase LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards rookie cards.

Unlike individual cards, sealed wax offers diversified exposure, making it a safer and more consistent investment option.

Conclusion

The sports card market is evolving day over day. In conclusion, preseason hype still reigns supreme, often overshadowing in-season performance. While record-breaking players like Stephen Curry can buck the trend, the majority of cards lose value as the season progresses. Only the smart moves described in the article will help you avoid losing your card value due to unprecedented factors at play.

Tell me, what do you think about these unprecedented trends?

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