Imagine knowing the answer to a question in class. You’re bursting with excitement, ready to raise your hand and impress everyone, especially your teacher. But just as you’re about to shine, your friend overhears you and blurts out the answer first. Frustrating, right? This scenario is a lot like spotting potential NBA trading cards early. If you miss the opportunity to spot at the right moment, that chance might never present itself again.
In the world of card collecting, being first to identify the next big star can make all the difference. Whether it’s recognizing a promising rookie before others catch on or identifying undervalued cards that are poised to rise in value.
So, are you ready to know the secret?
I hear, “Yes, I am.”
Okay, then let’s understand how to spot NBA trading cards early.
Key Takeaways
1. Market understanding comes with several years of experience; don’t rush your way through.
2. Try to buy cards with strong fundamentals, such as from popular manufacturing companies like Panini or Topps, high-graded cards, and popular product lines such as Panini Prizm or Panini Select etc.
3. Be the first in the race by following key indicators such as hype created through any recent events, social media, or career milestones or their anniversaries.
4. Check for any herd mentality trends in the market and leverage them to lead you to profit.
5. Keep the performance indicator as a top priority and sell your cards in the next preseason if your player performed well in this season.
Table of Contents
Understanding What You Can Do Right
Are You Ready For It?
Spotting a rising value card is just as similar as spotting a high-profit trade. Both can make you an insane amount of money. So, heads up. It is important to treat it with the same diligence and strategy as you would in trading stocks. The ability to identify undervalued cards before they become highly sought after requires research, keen observation, and sometimes a bit of intuition.
Checking the Strong Fundamentals
One thing you need to understand is that not any trading card qualifies for a potential winning prospect. For example, cards with contrasting jersey and background appearances, unusual printing spots, or really short print runs can immediately qualify as a winning horse. Thereafter, cards with strong fundamentals, such as
- Authentic Production Company, such as Panini or Topps
- Higher Grading, and
- Being part of a premium product line such as Panini Prizm, Donruss Optic, or NT.
Play With their Emotions
Understanding the market emotions requires you to understand collectors’s emotions. And, the earlier you understand that, the earlier you’ll be able to remove your hand from the fire.
Further is the list of all the key indicators that highlight the signs of a potential player whose cards are likely to rise in value.
Key Indicators
1. Effect of Recent Events
According to the concept of recency bias, people are more likely to take their decisions based on the recent events that have occurred.
For example, the price of the 1997 Hoops Kobe Bryant #1 High-Voltage—500 card increased by roughly 39% from $6,500 on December 15th to $9,000 within 8 days after his 20,000 career milestone anniversary on December 23rd.
Data Courtesy: Cardladder.com
Collectors can take advantage of this by foresighting and purchasing trading cards before career milestones or big moments of prominent players and selling them at inflated prices to maximize earnings.
2. Who is Popping on Your Socials?
Keeping an eye on social media and mainstream media not only helps you to keep up with the latest news but also helps you to understand who is taking the lead in the hype market. Hype trading is one of the key concepts that drive the decisions of almost all the collectors.
Example of an NBA Trading Card That Soared in Price After a Player Went Viral on Social Media:
For instance, Zion Williamson in the year 2019 went viral after being the first overall pick in the NBA draft. It generated a buzz on social media, especially with his explosive highlights of NBA Summer League play, which created a buzz all over the internet, and his charismatic personality resonated with both the game fans and outside of it as well.
After this, his Panini Prizm RC saw a massive surge in value, with graded versions selling for almost $1000.
Example of an NBA Trading Card That Soared in Price After a Player Went Viral on Social Media:
Kristaps Porziņģis is also recognized as “The Unicorn.” His card prices saw a sharp decline, with many of his rookie cards selling for less than $100 after he enjoyed a strong market during his New York Knicks tenure. Experts argue that this happened due to his several injuries and trade to the Dallas Mavericks but also because of comparatively less social media presence.
3. What time of the Year is it?
If you are into any kind of business, you would understand that each one of them has its peak and off-season time. This cycle creates trends in the market that collectors can use to their advantage. The NBA trading card market is no different.
For instance, there is seen a trend over the years in the NBA trading card market in which the market hones in on a potential player who receives significant marketing attention. This year, it was Caitlin Clark.
Caitlin Clark’s 2024 Select WNBA Concourse Raw card sold over 300 times in November 2024 within a week, making it one of the hottest cards in recent memory. Hmm, have you also been seeing her a lot on social media?
Taking nothing away from her incredible performance and talent, the intense media focus created a surge in the demand for her cards.
Pro Tip: The preseason hype often revolves around young prospects, rookies, or breakout stars from the previous season. By paying attention to such trends, you can identify undervalued cards before the market catches on.
4. Herd Mentality
Herd Mentality is the cognitive mentality of people following the decision of the majority rather than having their standalone opinion. This concept is similarly applicable in the trading card market as well. You might see all the people going after the same card again and again, buying and selling, and eventually increasing its value in a form of inflated bubble.
For instance, Mark Jackson 1990 Hoops #205 Base has seen 146 sales in the last seven days with an average price of over $11 in the month of November, 2024. This is a perfect example of understanding how key indicators work, from recency bias to social media hype and the herd mentality as well.
This shows that cards from overprinted eras can lose value unless they are tied to a unique story or feeling of nostalgia. Despite being part of the overprinted “junk wax” era, this card’s connection to the Menendez brothers has kept it in demand even after this many years, further fueled by ongoing media coverage. For those who don’t know this connection, here is a relevant video.
5. The Performance Indicator
Of course, collectors can always go after Rookie Cards or Base Prizms of well-performing players, especially those whose cards have shown consistent value appreciation. Constantly feeding yourself with games, keeping up with the stats, and making money—what more could you want!
Although cards of current players rise in value slowly, they are your best bet when it comes to liquid cards. For instance, Victor Wembanyama 2023 Base Prizm PSA 10 has seen 152 sales in the last week in the month of November, 2024. Victor’s rookie cards remain a collector’s favorite as his performance continues to excite fans.
Pro tip: You can use websites like Card Ladder, Price Charting, or simply use eBay to track cards with positive value appreciation.
Conclusion
By investing in rookie cards, monitoring market cycles, and targeting players near milestones, you can maximize your collection’s potential. Remember, not putting all your fortune into one resource can help you survive longer in the market. So, look to diversify your card investment portfolio. Diversifying across rookies, veterans, and rare editions minimizes risks associated with recency bias.
FAQs:
1. How to spot fake trading cards?
Keep in mind the quality of a genuine trading card. You can even check your side-by-side to a card you are sure is authentic. Counterfeits may have some unusual printing spots, blurs, or out-of-the-box paper or plastic usage that can be identified easily.
You can even scan the QR code given at the back of the card to check its authenticity.
2. How to find rare NBA cards?
You can use websites such as eBay, COMC, and StockX to find rare card listings. You can also join online forums, social media groups, and trading communities that can lead you to private rare card listings or trades.
3. What NBA cards to look for?
Rookie cards, autographed cards, relic or memorabilia cards, parallel cards, low print cards, and cards of Hall of Fame players.
4. What should I look for in a trading card?
Condition of the card, its rarity, potentially higher-graded, player significance, year of release (for vintage cards), and special features (like AUTO or Mem. cards)
5. How to spot a reprint rookie card?
Reprint cards are the replicas of the original print ones. Inspect the description of the card if it says “Reprint” or “RP” in its listing. Further, you can send it for grading if you’re not sure of its authenticity.
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